The Future of the ‘Net – bandwidth, congestion and other developments – 1 TERABIT/second…

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No need yet for 1 Tbps transport backbones / networks…!!!???

We most certainly are going to need better technology and protocols deployed if we are going to continue adding more and more data/voice communication devices to the ‘Net, as well as the ensuing surge in voice & data usage on and over the ‘Net. If we do not so sooner, rather than later we are all going to be choking on congested network congestions.

Except of course, for those that pay for “non-throttling,” “premiums for better service – thanks to the removal of Net Neutrality,” and any other schemes the telcos and ISPs can think of to generate more money grabbing revenues.

It appears that some firms, as indicated in Heavy Reading’s premium white paper, (www.heavyreading.com/details.asp?sku_id=3179&skuitem_itemid=1555), seem to be indicating that the time is not quite ripe for 1 Tbps transport networks with regards to the coming shift to 400 Gbps backend / backbone network transport. Meaning that we’re not likely to see 1 Tbps quite just yet…

I would disagree with the Heavy Reading folks’ study. We will need speeds up to 1 Tbps ‘much’ sooner as more and more devices are spawned in this age of the Internet of Things (IoT), if not exponentially then at the very least VERY geometrically.

Look around, there is going to be a great deal more Wi-Fi (and cellular) traffic at ever expanding scales of bandwidth; i.e. while I don’t have a fridge that talks to the ‘Net, some people do. These people do so in order to replenish food stuffs in that fridge and that type of data usage is going to grow.

Then too, remember the information on IPv6 with its unimaginable number of IP addresses that IPv6 allows as well as the number of embedded RFID chips in nearly everything for tracking, sensing and sharing info – that is going to happen, then what do you think the level of ‘Net traffic is going to be like. Following are more areas that is going to create much more data / voice traffic.

Forward Looking Leaders

We will need more leaders, in multiple industries, who will look further ahead to see what the need will be rather than those leaders who only look 2 – 3 years ahead ‘only’ to meet the revenue and ROI profits of right now.

Being short-sighted with a narrow view of technology and usage will only be limiting and will affect all of us.
Enhanced Wi-Fi capabilities

We are going to have high and heavy Web and Wi-Fi usage – for many purposes. We will need enhanced Wi-Fi capabilities and capacities to handle the growth of traffic.

More advances continue to occur in this area – and it “ain’t gonna” stop at 802.11 a/b/g/n standards. The capabilities will increase in range and data speeds – we already see increasing use of microcells and femtocells (5 & 6) by wireless providers (AT&T & even Cisco) to offload some of the burden and congestion from the monstrous large cell towers. Micro and Femtocells are hand held sized cubes that can be placed anywhere to boost wireless signals – in the home or at a bus stop or on the side of a building or throughout a conference hall.

As we continue moving forward with more and better (sometimes not) technology, there is going to be much more need and extensive use of bandwidth.

Data backups

There are going to be many, many more firms and home users performing backups across the ‘Net, to the ‘Cloud.’ These entities are going to be performing backups for multiple reasons and they ‘may not’ pay for some dedicated T1 or T3 copper cable or a Fiber Optic line from point A to point B.

Business are going to be doing backups for many critical files, stemming from Personnel (HR), financial, R & D, strategy and other important files.

Home users are going to continue doing backups for their libraries (data – video, pictures and important documents). And with lower cost options from different vendors, more users are going to get into the act and start doing backups.

Many people and firms are doing backups in case of malicious individuals create havoc and ruin the in home PCs and on site servers of the various businesses.

MORE people and MORE firms are going to do backups and file transfers over the ‘Net, whether it is via Wi-Fi or wired – it will all traverse the ‘Net (copper or fiber links).

Illegal activities

What about those illegal usages over the ‘Net, you know, the illicit pornography – no, I’m not referring to the regular permissible porno, I’m talking about the illegal underage, human trafficking and other venues

What about movie and music pirating from peer to peer networks – you think that is going away? There is going to be more of this, that is, until they are caught performing these illegal actions, either by the RIAA, MPAA, Justice Dept and/or other arms of law enforcement.

You know there is going to be more of this activity as more people get into the digital game of life and take advantage of every part of the ‘Net that they can. There is going to a lot of this activity.

And while not illegal, what about those folks who are data hogs, they suck down vast amounts of data from the ‘Net creating congestion for others. They are not stealing bandwidth but they sure use a great deal of it…

Smartphones, Tablets, HDTV oh my…

As growth continues onward and upward, there will be more people constantly on their smartphones watching videos (or TV or sports).

Think about their being significantly more people using the video calling function on their phones and tablets as the cost of data plans drop (hopefully) in price and more people using their PCs/laptops/tablets to make video calls over something like a Skype – there is going to be more data on the ‘Net, whether it is Wi-Fi, Fiber or cable.

Remember the old cartoons, TV episodes and movie clips of people making those video calls at anytime, anywhere – more people are going to be doing this. As you may have noticed in some of the newer commercials, some of the telcos are continually trying to push their video calling features. Unfortunately, to some like me, the price to use is still too high to just glibly use whenever and wherever…

There will be more HDTV, think 4K HDTV, which requires MUCH more bandwidth. Make no mistake about it; there will be more 4K HD content – soon. And that expensively high cost of owning a 4K HDTV, you know that cost is going to come down and as ever, more people will want it.

Then, what about another possible high bandwidth application, such as vehicle to vehicle(V2V) communications…? Rest assured, V2V is coming as well, as we attempt to make roads and vehicles safer in saving the lives of hundreds of thousands of people over the coming years – especially when many of these people who die or cause the death of others should not have been driving in the first place:

  • Drunk drivers
  • Stoned drivers
  • Under-aged and inexperienced drivers showing off (yes, we know this happens because many have done the same thing in their youth – overloaded passengers, trying to impress others, etc.)
  • Angry drivers
  • Older drivers driving far beyond when they should have stopped driving

Whether many of us like it or not, we will have V2V communications in the future, cars talking to other cars/trucks/buses to prevent T-boning or head on collisions because someone was not paying attention… This will add to Wi-Fi/cellular congestion across the country, across the globe in years to come.

You’re going to see more data from devices such as Google Glass, competitor knock offs and other types of recording devices – all sending data to the Cloud. Give it several years and you’ll see… We know that Cloud storage that is available to us regular users is becoming so inexpensive, why not store it in the Cloud. The only real hurdle is the data rate charges, set by the various telco’s out there.

Security Data

More people are going to turn to checking their homes and apartments remotely, while at work, while at the movies or while on vacation. As the quality of IP enabled security hardware, firmware and software continues to improve, more people still will jump on this type of security for peace of mind. And they are going to do more security checking from their smart phones.

Some people, while at work, will have a dedicated web page up all day long to keep an eye on their home for:

– Checking up on the person providing hospice for an older parent or

– Whoever is taking care of their baby or

– Simply to keeping an eye out for whoever is stealing their UPS/FEDEX packages

More companies are going to use IP enabled monitoring for:

– The safety and tracking of their delivery drivers, i.e. to more quickly respond to one of their vehicles being hijacked

– Tracking of assets throughout the long supply chain, to ensure the assets are legit and/or if they are being tampered with

Online Education

For those who are not aware, online learning is going to continue to grow; you need but check out online learning at: Stanford, Coursera, edX, Udacity and Harvard. These are all entities part of the current Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) experiment (my term) but it is likely here to stay. Online education is being expanded at more colleges and high schools and below.

It is a great use of technology and the ensuing bandwidth utilization is only going to continue upward at an ever increasing curve.

Health care Data

More institutions are going to use IP enabled devices and the ‘Net for ever better purposes in diagnosing, researching and sharing of TERABYTES (if not petabytes and above) during a single session.

For instance, x-ray files are large images to transport across the Internet…

Options for the near future

Flexigrid. This is one item I had not heard about until I read earlier this year one guy’s posting of a link at a web site, which in turn led me to Gizmodo’s article for more info:

The Fastest Real-World Internet Is 1000x Quicker than Google Fiber http://gizmodo.com/the-fastest-real-world-internet-is-1000x-quicker-than-g-1506564949, Jan 22, 2014

UK researchers (BT along with French Alcatel-Lucent) have achieved a network speed of 1.4 TERABITS per second – with commercial grade hardware using a new protocol called Flexigrid. They overlaid seven channels of data in one fiber optic cable with each layer moving 200 Gbps (bits/sec) to achieve that 1.4 Tbps – they called the resulting combination, an “Alien Super Channel”…

From Gizmodo’s article: How fast is 1.4 Tbps? Fast enough to stream any one of the following in one second:

  • 64 hours of HD Netflix
  • 38 hours in 3D or 4K
  • 36,409 songs from Spotify

Or, how about downloading 44 films in a second, from an article in The Independent: www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/fastest-ever-commercial-internet-speeds-in-london-download-44-films-in-a-second-9077061.html.

If we can even realistically obtain half of that monstrous speed in the U.S., it will help tremendously with the congestion and Quality of Experience problems we have throughout the country – in that people will have their data and will be off the ‘Net quicker, something along those lines.

Some of us cannot wait for this tech to be deployed and be put into real use. But, the telco’s are likely to charge an arm and a leg for this new Alien Super Channel as it is called…

Or, how about 100 Gbps Wi-Fi, eh…? That would be something as well. Checkout the article, also at Gizmodo

The World’s Fastest Wi-Fi Makes Google Fiber Look Like Dial-Up, http://gizmodo.com/the-worlds-fastest-wi-fi-makes-google-fiber-look-like-1444857507 Oct 14, 2013 – this is Wi-Fi speeds developed by a joint German team.

Read the more serious KIT (one of the German teams) article as well, World Record: Wireless Data Transmission at 100 Gbit/s, http://www.kit.edu/visit/pi_2013_14082.php Oct 14, 2013.

Compression

Data compression is another tool that can be used. If we utilize more and better data compression schemes to minimize the size of data packets flowing across the ‘Net through all the various routers and switches that will help a great deal. Of course, it will have to be better than what is currently being used today.

Collaboration

Collaboration across many telcos (i.e. Verizon, Sprint), telecom vendors of routers and switches (i.e. Juniper, Qualcomm, Cisco) and other hardware/firmware/software manufacturer/creators has got to occur in order to move the football down the field to that infamous goal post we always hear about.

We need that innovation and collaboration now in order to have a better future for everyone, whether one is in school, at home or businesses trying to be a better entity for their customers.

We need leaders who are willing to convince their shareholders to hold off or forego their dividend checks, while investments are made now to move that football.

 

I am pretty confident there are still better ways to more data across the ‘Net in a more efficient and effective manner but I only wanted to talk up the need for even faster pipes across the Internet…

  

 

Definitions

BPS – Bits per second

MPAA – Motion Picture Association of America

RIAA – Recording Industry Association of America

 

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